The spot market saw active trading, and aluminum prices fluctuated upward [SMM Aluminum Morning Comment]

Futures market: Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2412 contract opened at 20,880 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 20,905 yuan/mt and a low of 20,540 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,700 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt or 0.12% from the previous close. The trading volume was 86,000 lots, and the open interest was 193,000 lots, with a daily reduction of 847 lots. Last Friday, LME aluminum opened at $2,622/mt, hit a high of $2,654/mt and a low of $2,582.5/mt, and closed at $2,603/mt, down $23/mt or 0.88%.

Summary: On the macro front, the US Fed's expectations for another interest rate cut have strengthened, and global liquidity remains ample. The Chinese government continues to boost consumption. On the fundamentals side, domestic aluminum social inventory has been affected by transportation issues, leading to continuous destocking and falling below the 600,000 mt mark. Alumina spot supply is tight, and some companies have reduced or halted production, causing alumina prices to fluctuate upward, providing strong support for aluminum prices on the cost side. Overall, domestic aluminum remains in a low inventory and high-cost state, and short-term aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate upward.